Ohio State vs Michigan

Ohio State Buckeyes (9-2) @ Michigan Wolverines (5-6)
Game Time: 12:00pm EDT Saturday November 21st, 2009
Lines at time of blog post: Ohio State (-12) Over/Under (47.5)

As high noon strikes this Saturday, two teams will renew their great rivalry. Ohio State visits Ann Arbor to face the Michigan Wolverines in what is arguable one of the greatest rivalry's in all of college sports. Personally I place this right up there with Duke vs North Carolina in basketball. However, this great rivalry has been pretty lop sided the past 5 years, as the Buckeyes look for their 6th straight victory in this series between two teams rich in tradition and prestige, that absolutely hate each other.

Last season at the Horse-Shoe in Columbus Ohio, the Buckeyes were 20.5 point favorites, a line that was unheard of in this rivalry until last year. All Ohio State did was cover the spread with ease, embarrassing Michigan in a 42-7 win. The game played tomorrow will have a more conservative line compared to last seasons. Some books have the line as high as 12.5 and as low as 11.5, but mostly they are settled around the 12 mark (at the time of this blog). Ohio State brings with them the 65th ranked offense in the nation, averaging 369.1 yards per game. The Ohio State offense is averaging 194.8 yards rushing and 174.3 yards passing per game, so far this season. Ohio State's offense mainly flows around the play of their terrific young sophomore QB from Jeannetter, Pennsylvania, Terrelle Pryor. This game will be no different than all the others this season. The game will go, as Pryor goes and in such a big rivalry game, Terrelle Pryor will want to be electrifying. Pryor is not having the best of seasons thus far, but has gotten the job done. He has 15 passing touchdowns, but has thrown 9 interceptions this season and has completed only 55.8% of his passes. Terrelle Pryor's mistakes have not come back to haunt him thanks to the Buckeye's fantastic defense. So far this season the Buckeye defense ranks 5th in the nation in total yards, 4th in the nation in rushing yards, and an incredible 6th in the nation in points allowed, giving up an average of 12.4 points per game.

Despite Michigan's overall record, the Wolverines are 5-2 at home this season. Michigan's 56th overall ranked offense is averaging 37 points per game at home this season. The Wolverines are putting up on average 441.9 yards per game at home, compared to 378.4 on the road. The Wolverines can expect the house to be rocking for this rivalry game, with over 107,000 dressed in the Maize and Blue hoping for nothing short of a miracle to happen. Despite losing 4 games in a row and 6 of their last 7, Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez has asked his team to stay focused, mentioning that this is their biggest game of the year. A win on Saturday will mean a lot to Michigan. A win on Saturday against Ohio State will end the 5 game win streak OSU has in this series, it will assure Michigan of a bowl berth, and give the Wolverines their first win against an FBS opponent since Sept. 26th against Indiana. For Michigan to at least keep this game close they need to try and keep Terrelle Pryor from running around. If the Wolverine defense can keep Pryor in the pocket, it should allow them to frustrate Pryor which can lead to some interceptions for the Michigan defense. If the Wolverine defense can keep Pryor in check, the rest of the game falls completely on the shoulders and arm of their freshman QB Tate Forcier. So far this season Forcier has thrown 12 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions, sporting a 58.4% completion percentage. Forcier will need to play smart and have a great game for Michigan to have a realistic change to keep this game close, however he has to face one of the toughest defenses in the nation.

Suggested Lean: Michigan +12 (The defense for Michigan will step up with the help of the crowd and keep Pryor contained in the pocket leading to some turnover opportunities that the Wolverines will need to keep this game close. There is a lot riding on this game for Michigan and I expect them to play like this is their championship game).

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Kansas State @ Nebraska

Kansas State Wildcats (6-5) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-3)
Game Time: 7:45pm EDT Saturday November 21st, 2009
Lines at time of blog post: Nebraska (-16.5) Over/Under (44.5)

The weather conditions should be perfect for this HUGE Big 12 North football game at Memorial Stadium, in Lincoln, Nebraska on Saturday when Kansas State comes to town to face off against the Cornhuskers. The winner of this game will control their own destiny in the Big 12 North for the right to face Texas in the Big 12 Championship game in December. Many people feel that if Nebraska can win this game, they match up very well on both sides of the ball against the team from Austin, Texas. However, time will tell and Nebraska better not look past the challenge that lies in front of them on Saturday.

In front of a home crowd that should exceed 81,000, Bo Pelini will have to have his Blackshirts charged up and ready for this game. The Nebraska offense, which is ranked 77th in the nation and averaging 353.4 yards per game, takes a very balanced approach. The Cornhuskers offense is averaging 152.4 yards on the ground and 201 yards passing per game. It is this potent balanced offense that should keep a suspect Kansas State defense on its heels especially late in the game. At home this season Nebraska is averaging around 28.2 points per game, while the Kansas State defense is giving up around 37 points per game on the road. The defense for Nebraska is a different story. Nebraska's overall 10th ranked defense has been down right nasty this season and even more so at home. Kansas States 76th ranked offense may find it very difficult to move the ball on this stingy Cornhusker defense. Nebraska's defense is only giving up 9.2 points per game at home and only giving up 11 points per game overall this season.

Kansas State staggers into Lincoln with a (1-4) away record this season and having just come off a home loss to Missouri (12-38). Playing on the road has not been very kind to the Wildcats thus far this season. Their offense which scores around 24.8 points per game, has found points hard to come by on the road, only scoring around 17 points in opponents stadiums. Their offense will have to be in great form, if they expect to keep up with Nebraska in this game. For Kansas State to keep this game close, and keep themselves in the football game, they will need a big day from their junior running back, Daniel Thomas. Daniel Thomas is averaging around 5.1 yards per carry this season and has 11 rushing touchdowns. He is currently the leading rusher and currently leading the team in touchdowns as well. Kansas State will need him to have a monster game against a pretty good rush defense in Nebraska. Nebraska is giving up on average 94.7 rushing yards per game, making them the 11th ranked rush defense in the nation.

We do feel that in a game of such high emotions with lots on the line, perhaps risking 16.5 points with Nebraska may not be the best pick for this game, of course given everything above taking the 16.5 points with Kansas State is certainly no gimmie ither. If the Nebraska offense can play at a high tempo against a vulnerable Kansas State defense, and the Kansas State offense moves the ball well with Daniel Thomas leading to a few points, we think that the best bet here may be on the total.

Suggested Lean: Over 44.5 (Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between K-State & Nebraska. Also the O/U opened up at 43 at some books, and has jumped up to 44.5 suggesting that money has already begun to come in on the Over.)

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A Key Match-Up In Group F

On Wednesday November 4th, FC Internazionale Milano will travel to FC Dynamo Kiev for a very important match in the Champions League Group F. Right now Inter sits in last place in Group F, but only 1 point out of 1st place. Group F seems to be, at least during the first 3 match days a very evenly matched group, however the two powerhouses that would normally be penciled in to advance are struggling. Barcelona is in a 3 way tie for first place (on points) with 4, while Inter has only 3. In the first 3 matches in this group Inter has managed just 3 draws, while everyone else in the group is 1-1-1. Is it time now for Inter to get their first win, in Group F against a very focused Dynamo Kiev squad ?

To say this is a must win for Inter is not exactly true. The truth is that any of the 4 teams in the group can win tomorrow and no-one will have clinched a spot in the second round. However, in my opinion Inter Milan cannot afford to lose or draw this next match against Dynamo Kiev, because Inter will have to travel to Camp Nou to take on Barcelona on November 24th. I do not think that Inter Milan wants to go into Camp Nou knowing that a loss could mean a possible early exit in this years Champions League.

The last time these two squared off was on match day 3, October 20th. The game ended in a 2-2 draw and was a match were Inter Milan had to come from behind twice just to earn a point. Watching this game Inter seemed to have no interest and for almost the entire first half played sluggish football, while Dynamo Kiev came out flying and controlled much of the first half. To Inters credit they did play that game without some of their key attackers such as Mario Balotelli and Diego Milito. Also, striker Samuel Eto'o was recovering from injury. This time around Inter Milan will have the help of Samuel Eto'o and Diego Milito, but Mario Balotelli is currently listed as doubtful with an illness. Most current team news is listed below:

Dynamo
Out: Badr El Kaddouri (ankle), Olexandr Shovkovskiy (stomach), Pape Diakhate (knee)
Doubtful: Andriy Nesmachniy (knee)
Misses next match if booked: Leandro Almeida, Gérson Magrão, Artem Milevskiy

Inter
Out: none
Doubtful: Thiago Motta (thigh), Wesley Sneijder (thigh), Sulley Muntari (heel), Cristian Chivu thigh), Mario Balotelli (illness)
Misses next match if booked: Chivu, Maicon

The weather will be cold in the Ukraine, but I do not expect that to be much of a factor or slow Inter down. To win this game Inter needs to control the beginning of the half and keep an eye on Andriy Shevchenko, the Ukrainian former World Player of the Year. If Inter plays with the passion that they need to start to show in this tournament, their forwards should be too much for the Dynamo defense.

Suggestions:
Inter Milan to win @ +110 (Bookmaker)

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